A new analysis from NAFSA and JB International warns that international student commencements in the US could fall by 30–40% for the key September 2025 intake. Such a decline would lower overall international student enrollment by 15% in the 2025/26 academic year—representing 150,000 fewer students. The projected economic impact is significant, with an estimated US$7 billion in losses and more than 60,000 jobs at risk nationwide.
Key Factors Driving the Decline in International Students (2025/26)
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Visa Interview Suspension: All US student visa interviews were paused from 27 May to 18 June 2025.
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Limited Appointment Availability: Even after resumption in late June, appointment slots remained scarce, creating delays.
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Slowdown in Visa Issuance: The first half of 2025 saw a softening of visa approvals, signaling stricter scrutiny.
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New US Travel Ban: On 4 June 2025, the US introduced a full ban on citizens from 12 countries and partial bans on seven more.
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Potential Expansion: The administration is considering extending bans to 36 additional countries, including key student-sending nations in Africa.
